The Article of Education Loans

For that matter, all the commodities and services need correction including Rice which is slowly showing uptrend. I can myself feel the pinch after coming back from US and trying to settle down here.

 

I feel that there is still some excesses remaining in the market. I still see many of the small investors who had entered in Oct/Nov 2007 holding on to their stocks. The day they start selling, I feel the real fear factor would come into picture. The despondency level has not yet been achieved.

 

On macro economics, I feel Indian companies would go for operational efficiencies now onwards. Read in ET today that IT Companies are investing some money for the same (like Theory of Constraint mechanism to increase operational efficiency - see today ET on Satyam Computer implementing the same). For India story, there is huge demand in the market - I can see huge huge crowd in one of the Central Mall of Pantaloons but I see many of the freebies going away for the services rendered by Service Providers like Vodafone and Airtel. Not sure about the real estate market but atleast in Hyderabad market, I still see a cartel operating not allowing the prices to go down. Also, maybe the new airport effect.

 

Thanks,

Guru

 

 

On 3/19/08, sharestar <Sharestar@gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks kukkuji. I go with your views and would also like to add -
untill and unless the rise in oil prices is not controlled - we will
never see actual buying from funds and international investors. Maybe
all three big economies of the world ( USA/CHINA/INDIA) want to slow
down and break the commodities to realistic levels to control
inflation which in turn will slow down the commodity manufactures and
add to this we will be seeing huge commissioning of expanded
capacities - which if not absorbed will take them dowm under. Also -
the rise in the prices of the essentials will not allow RBI to
decrease bank rates. Right now only OIL is holding them back.

PC wanted cement manufacturers to reduce prices. They did not obey and
he brought the whole real estate down and choke the demand. It took
him six months but they are in a fix. I have been talkin g to few
builder friends/agents and by reading their faces - we can make out
something somewhere is wrong. The agent who use to travel in coolcab
has lately been travelling in AUTO rickshaws.  Something similar we
can expect in metals in near future. We have been hearing Kamal nath
requesting steel manufactures to reduce prices but they are not. For
my manufacturing of a consumer product I need to buy many types of
metals for electroplating. Overall market is in slump and my purchases
are going down since last three months - so how and why they are
rising prices when the  demand is actually slowing down. Even the
dealers are complaining the same. They are already planning to
increase royalties of ore prices which will take away some profits
from them to gov. kitty.

They have already succeeded in cripling real estate by steadily
increasing interest rates and  home loan refinance rates. Now their
target is food. Earlier they killed sugar and they have already banned
exports of edible oil. Similar measures can be expected in other
commodities too which directly effects common men. Wheat is an aam
aadmi product and they will see to it that wheat comes down. How? I
dont know. You can never fight the goverment in an election year.

India is a country with a population of 1300 million where people like
ISG readers are hardly 20 million( thats a guess ). Can we go ahead
leaving those 1280 million behind. And PC is not a fool.

All companies who have been buying farmland in the name of SEZ will be
taken head on. And they will see to it that these things gets
publicised. It would be prudent to be a trader untill coming elections
in 2009 if we cannot live without stock markets or invest where we can
clearly see the yield and growth together - but again here patience
will be the key. There is no fun - even watching the same prices
months after months in our scrips if it does not fall and everyday we
see a negative headline. How many of us have that temperament? Markets
can remain irrational longer then we can remain rational.

Rather I would spend that money on travelling with my family rather
loosing here

Lets watch - with our hands closed and eyes open and belief in GOD.
Dont be a bull nor a bear - be an oppurtunist and a long term
investor.

Patience will be rewarded and greed will meet its faith.

Regards

On Mar 19, 5:33 pm, "kukku picks" <kukkus...@gmail.com> wrote:
> dear investors,
>
> never go against the trend. this is sentiment which makes big  difference
> rest every thing remain same.
>
> make sentiment our  best friend.
>
> as warned earlier, it is better to see the actual nos of results for the
> 4rth qtr which i feel may be below expectations which will decide the trend.
>
> it is also possible that there  may be many companies might have not made
> full provisions for defer tax or full extent of FBT, or might have paid less
> taxes in 1st three qtrs. & this may be the reason for more taxes in 4rth qtr
> in some of the companies.
>
> just see the case of first leasing company  did not make any provision last
> year in 1st three qtrs for defer tax but paid rs 8.15 cr as defer tax in
> 4rth qtr  which reduced the net profit  of last year but in current year it
> has made provision for defer tax of rs 2.55 cr in each qtr which is as good
> as cash profit.
>
> so investors need to be careful in reading such nos.
>
> feedback from industry for 4rth qtr is mixed in nature & it is more towards
> slower down.
>
> i would advise to focus on good yield stocks having good outlook  & fallen
> by more than 50 % where down side can be limited. because there may be
> stronger support at down side since yield will increase at every fall.  at
> present i would like to focus here only.
>
> MARKET IS GOING TO REMAIN HERE  & SO WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES. SO KEEP COOL &
> CALM TO TAKE BETTER DECISION.
>
> 1ST IT WAS RAINING NON STOP ALL OVER. NOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS FLOODING.
>
> WE CAN NOT GO AG IT.   IT IS BETTER TO BE VERY DEFENSIVE & PROTECT OUR
> BELONGINGS RATHER THAN LOOKING FOR SHORT TERM GAINS.
>
> kukku
>
> On 19/03/2008, Rahul Agarwal <rahulag...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > i wont love that level, bcoz i will be in loss then
> > but yes if it comes then i will put in more funds
>
> > On 3/19/08, Asad <asadsto...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > I think we(ISG) will love that level . :-)
>
> > > ZeeNut wrote:
> > > > Nice cheery news to start the day :-) :-) :-)
>
> > > > Much obliged for the member's efforts to kep ISG a happy
> > > > place :-) :-) :-)
>
> > > > - ZeeNut
>
> > > > On Mar 18, 1:03 pm, Maverick <rajivha...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > > >>   Morgan Stanley-A Bear Market Will Take BSE To 11022
>
> > > >>   The average decline in the narrow index is around 50% from peak to
> > > trough.
>
> > > >>   Based on our residual income model, a bear market could take the
> > > BSE Sensex to 11022, slightly less than a 50% decline from the top
>
> > > >>   * The PE ratio tends to more than halve. The starting PE has been
> > > quite similar at just over 30x. We were at that multiple in January
> > > >>   2008 when the current correction began.
>
> > > >>   * The broader market underperforms the narrow market.
>
> > > >>   * Bear market declines last for a shorter period than the average
> > > bull market rise.
>
> > > >>   * However, bear markets are accompanied by a prolonged phase of
> > > sideway movements that make them longer than bull markets.
>
> > > >>   * Bear market rallies tend to be powerful.
>
> > > >>   * No sector trends are visible. Each bear market has its own
> > > favorite sector.
>
> > > >>   * The return from the low can be very strong.
>
> > > >>   * It takes a long time to get back to the previous bull market
> > > peak.
>
> > > >>   How to Cope With a Bear Market
> > > >>   Sources: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
>
> > > >>   * Bear market characteristics - unpredictable and painful: It may
> > > be premature to pronounce the ongoing correction as the start of a bear
> > > market even as technical metrics are suggesting that we may already be in
> > > one.
>
> > > >>   Insights from the three big bear markets of the past 15 years
> > > should be useful tools for investors if they have to tackle another bear
> > > market in the coming months. There are three key insights we have picked up:
>
> > > >>   1) The market's decline phase is usually shorter than the bull
> > > market's rise but post the fall, bear markets witness a protracted period of
> > > sideways movement that can be quite painful.
>
> > > >>   2) There are no predictable patterns in sector performance (i.e.,
> > > the sectoral winners differ in each bear market just the way each bull
> > > market is built around distinct sectoral themes).
>
> > > >>   3) Bear market rallies tend to be quite powerful, but are meant to
> > > be sold and not bought.
>
> > > >>   * If we get a bear market, a 50% decline from the top is in the
> > > offing:
>
> > > >>   Indeed, if we slip into a bear market, it could be different from
> > > the previous bear markets in at least one way: We are unlikely to get the
> > > extended sideways movement in share prices after the bear market bottom is
> > > established.
>
> > > >>   This is because fundamentally India is very different now than what
> > > it has been over the past 15 years.
>
> > > >>   This also means that the time scale for any prospective bear market
> > > may be compressed compared to the past. However, this does not mean that the
> > > decline will be smaller. Investors should still be prepared for close to a
> > > 50% haircut from the top.
>
> > > >>   The factors that could cause a bear market include a combination of
> > > bad global financial markets and policy errors at home that lead to a
> > > greaterthan-
> > > >>   expected contraction in domestic growth rate.
>
> > > >>   We had assigned a 20% probability to a bear market at the start of
> > > the year, and we continue with that forecast.
>
> > > >>   Based on our residual income model, a bear market could take the
> > > BSE Sensex to 11022, slightly less than a 50% decline from the top.
>
> > > >>   * How to position the portfolio: From a portfolio perspective,
> > > picking the winning sector in the event we slip into a bear market seems
> > > easier than usual.
>
> > > >>   After all, the valuation excesses and earnings risk seem
> > > concentrated in Financials, Industrials, Materials, Telecoms and Utilities.
>
> > > >>   On a relative basis, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Technology, and
> > > Consumer Discretionary have better valuation support. In our view, it is
> > > quite likely that Consumer Staples is the star sector in the event of a bear
> > > market with benign valuations, lack of institutional ownership, and low
> > > earnings risk as key drivers.
>
> > > >> Safe Harbor Statement:
>
> > > >> Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates,
> > > expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the
> > > Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those
> > > stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax
> > > regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which
> > > the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate
> > > movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand
> > > and supply constraints.
>
> > > >>   Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment
> > > advice.
>
> > > >> ---------------------------------
> > > >> Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo!
> > > Mobile.  Try it now.
>
> --http://groups.google.co.in/group/investmentsupergrowth
> IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Investment in equity shares has its own risks. Sincere
> efforts have been made to present the right investment
> perspective.Theinformation contained herein discussion is based on
> analysis and up on
> sources that we consider reliable. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy
> or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and I
> am   not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.&    take no
> responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise
> from the recommendations above. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
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