The Article of Education Loans

That was simply awesome...

This gives a fresh energy to look for opportunities to even the
depressed investors.

Like maheswaran said, That was a great boost up with superb
narration....

Nice to read your views sir

On Mar 19, 2:17 pm, "Maheshwaran Jothi" <maheshwaran.jo...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> "So, keep your eye on the little white circle in front of
> you......It is not a mirage.  It is not a light bulb.  It is not a
> ghost......IT IS THE END OF THE TUNNEL"...
>
> read more »
>
> Great narration... I liked it. This is one main reason, I read all your
> mails :)
>
> Good work,
> MJ
>
> On Wed, Mar 19, 2008 at 12:39 PM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Getting closer to the bottom as we scare the shorts with us violent
> > upmove.....So, keep your eye on the little white circle in front of
> > you......It is not a mirage.  It is not a light bulb.  It is not a
> > ghost......IT IS THE END OF THE TUNNEL with a few minor bumps in the
> > dark road in front of you until you are out of the tunnel.
>
> > Keep in mind, markets look ahead.  They accept the present as if the
> > news have already occured (even though the real events are still
> > occuring), and then continue to look forward.
>
> > It is VERY similar to ALL of us saying 'we are in recession', when the
> > Wikipedia definition HAS NOT COME TRUE as of today!!!!!!  So, you looked
> > forward then, and you will look forward now and a month from now, and 2
> > months from now.
>
> > It is NOT a V shaped recovery due to the magnitude of our issue, but
> > 'focus on the small bright light you see', and you will feel
> > better......Continue to SIP into stocks if you are as optimistic as some
> > of us, and if not, hang on until a few more levels break (on the
> > upside).  But, do not wait any longer after the final resistances are
> > broken at 17150 and 18160 (approx).
>
> > Wait and see.....Final bottom formation in progress, and I am not as
> > bearish as 14,100 or below (STILL)!
>
> > Rajeev Juneja wrote:
> > > Dear KKPji,
>
> > > Thanks for the succour...much needed and I feel we will recover
> > > plenty.....but when is the only......?...
>
> > > Best Regds
> > > Rajeev Juneja
>
> > > On Tue, Mar 18, 2008 at 7:35 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1...@gmail.com
> > > <mailto:kkpatel1...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> > >     *Please go through this very objectively, since the stats in here
> > >     do not
> > >     have a BIAS or SUBJECTIVE OPINIONS.  It clearly basis it on the past
> > >     recessions.
>
> > >     If there is anyone who has lived through the 1980 and 1990
> > recessions,
> > >     please share.  I can tell you that in BOTH of these recessions we
> > >     heard
> > >     things similar to "the world is coming to an end"......"US is in big
> > >     trouble"......"We will never make it out of this"......"We are going
> > >     down to 1/2 the index levels".......
>
> > >     Truth be known below that markets corrects around 15% to 20% in
> > >     the US.
> > >     Emerging markets correct much more, and we are seeing that
> > >     happening in
> > >     China, India and others, and this happens very simply due to the
> > >     higher
> > >     beta that India, China and EMs carry.
>
> > >     With no two events of the past being the same (even our own
> > >     birthdays!),
> > >     the 1990 recession is ALMOST equal to 2008 recession (closest
> > parallel
> > >     that we can draw).  In 1990, S&L banks went belly up (savings and
> > >     loans)
> > >     completely due to the risky loans that they took to give to
> > >     businesses,
> > >     home owners and big-spending-families.  And, today, we have a
> > similar
> > >     situation......I shipped my money to the UK since I was pissed off
> > at
> > >     what the govt was doing to save the bankers!!!!!!!!!!!!
>
> > >     In the last 2 years, there may be people crying out from roof-tops
> > >     about
> > >     recession, but you don't have to bother climbing onto roof-tops
> > >     since US
> > >     economic cycle is made of 4 year growth and then a recession
> > >     (typically).  We have been growing since 2003ish, and we are facing
> > a
> > >     correction.  And, then people who tell us time from a broken clock
> > all
> > >     the time, are also right TWICE A DAY!!!!!!!  So, the Doom and
> > Gloomers
> > >     will all come out and say, "See it was a froth, I told you so".
> >  And,
> > >     just when they start coming out and saying, the market forms a
> > bottom
> > >     within a few %.  I am glad that they are slowing coming out.....I
> > can
> > >     see the end of the tunnel!!!!!
>
> > >     Depression talk......Yes, there will be in pockets in the globe
> > where
> > >     they were in recession land for many years already (many American
> > >     states
> > >     run 10%+ unemployment rates most of the time due to lack of
> > industry).
> > >     But, depression in all of the US......I have a hard time visualizing
> > >     that, and if it comes true, I will be the first to admit I am
> > >     wrong, and
> > >     it would have affected me in a huge negative way (financially).
> >  But,
> > >     just from my meetings with people today (at IBM) who take care of
> > >     global
> > >     accounts (in addition to my global accounts), there is nothing but
> > >     'keep
> > >     on trucking forward' with projects going on.
>
> > >     Now to the article.......
> > >     *
> > >     Has the Stock Market Priced-In a Recession?
> > >     Has the Stock Market Priced-In a Recession?
>
> > >     Lessons from the past four recessions may offer clues to whether the
> > >     U.S. stock market has already priced-in (reflected in stock prices)
> > a
> > >     recession. Fidelity's Market Analysis, Research and Education (MARE
> > >     <
> >http://personal.fidelity.com/products/funds/content/UnderstandingMutu...
> > >)
> > >     group analyzed past U.S. economic recessions and the implications
> > they
> > >     may have for today's markets. Although past performance is no
> > >     guarantee
> > >     of future results, the information provides some interesting
> > insight.
>
> > >     Key takeaways
> > >     1. The important thing is not whether the U.S. economy has or may
> > >     enter
> > >     recession, but to what extent the stock market may have already
> > >     discounted economic weakness.
>
> > >     2. As of January 22, 2008, the stock market had declined more than
> > 16%
> > >     from its October peak, in the neighborhood of previous
> > >     recession-related
> > >     declines in 1980 and 1990.
>
> > >     3. More volatility may be on the way, but Federal Reserve interest
> > >     rate
> > >     cuts and widespread recognition of the slowdown may indicate the
> > stock
> > >     market is closer to a "bottom" than a "top."
>
> > >     Important insights from past U.S. economic recessions
>
> > >     1. They generally take awhile to officially diagnose, on average
> > being
> > >     announced six months after the recession already began.
>
> > >     2. They generally coincide with stock market downturns; the last
> > four
> > >     recessions coincided with market corrections of between 17% and 49%.
>
> > >     3. Because economic data lags and stock markets look forward,
> > >     sometimes
> > >     much of stock market declines have occurred before a recession is
> > >     officially diagnosed.
> > >     Lessons from past four recessions
> > >     Lessons from past four recessions
> > >     When compared to today
>
> > >     In two out of the four most recent recessions (1980 and 1990), the
> > >     entire market decline occurred prior to the official announcement of
> > >     recession, with significant stock market rallies of more than 27%
> > >     during
> > >     the 12 months after the recession trough.
>
> > >     The other two recessions (1981 and 2001) had different backdrops
> > >     compared to today, with the Federal Reserve hiking rates in 1981 and
> > >     lofty stock valuations in 2001.
>
> > >     The 1990 recession might be the scenario most similar to today, with
> > a
> > >     real-estate-induced economic downturn, a banking system spillover,
> > the
> > >     Fed already easing, and average stock valuations.
>
> > >     1990 U.S. economic recession: a guidepost for today?
> > >     Closing price for S&P 500 Index chart
> > >     Which is most similar?
> > >     Of the most recent U.S. recessions, the 1990 episode appears to
> > >     display
> > >     the most similarities to today:
> > >            In both instances, the U.S. economy slowed in the face of a
> > >     weakening
> > >     housing market exacerbated by real estate lending excesses (savings
> > &
> > >     loan crisis in 1990, subprime mortgage crisis today). Massive losses
> > >     among financial institutions (and bankruptcies of S&Ls in 1990)
> > >     threatened the banking system and resulted in tighter credit
> > >     conditions
> > >     for businesses and consumers.
> > >            The Fed began rate-cut cycles prior to the beginning of the
> > >     recession,
> > >     lowering the federal funds rate from 8.25% to 3% (1990-92) and from
> > >     5.25% to 3.5% (September 2007--January 2008). Valuations were near
> > >     historical averages. At 15.2 at the beginning of the 1990
> > >     recession, the
> > >     price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation for stocks was a bit below its
> > >     historical average of 17.4, compared to slightly above (18.7) today.
>
> > >     *Past performance is no guarantee of future results.*
> > >     *Investment decisions should be based on an individual's own
> > >     goals, time
> > >     horizon, and tolerance for risk.*
> > >     All recession dates are defined and announced by the National
> > Economic
> > >     Bureau of Research (NBER). Source: Haver Analytics, NBER as of
> > >     1/22/08.
> > >     Stock market returns represented by S&P 500 Index. Source: FactSet,
> > >     FMRCo. (MARE) as of 1/22/08. Total stock market decline measures
> > cycle
> > >     peak to trough of period that coincides with an economic recession.
> > >     Fed action prior to recession indicates the most recent action
> > >     taken by
> > >     the Federal Reserve prior to the recession start date.
> > >     The stock market valuation is measured by the price-to-earnings
> > (P/E)
> > >     ratio of the S&P 500 Index, using 17.4 as the long-term historical
> > >     average (Source: FactSet, Haver Analytics as of 12/31/07). The
> > >     valuations immediately prior to the start of recessions were as
> > >     follows:
> > >     7.5 (1980), 15.2- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

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