The Article of Education Loans

dear investors,


never go against the trend. this is sentiment which makes big  difference rest every thing remain same.

make sentiment our  best friend.

as warned earlier, it is better to see the actual nos of results for the 4rth qtr which i feel may be below expectations which will decide the trend.

it is also possible that there  may be many companies might have not made full provisions for defer tax or full extent of FBT, or might have paid less taxes in 1st three qtrs. & this may be the reason for more taxes in 4rth qtr in some of the companies.

just see the case of first leasing company  did not make any provision last year in 1st three qtrs for defer tax but paid rs 8.15 cr as defer tax in 4rth qtr  which reduced the net profit  of last year but in current year it  has made provision for defer tax of rs 2.55 cr in each qtr which is as good as cash profit.

so investors need to be careful in reading such nos.

feedback from industry for 4rth qtr is mixed in nature & it is more towards slower down.

i would advise to focus on good yield stocks having good outlook  & fallen by more than 50 % where down side can be limited. because there may be stronger support at down side since yield will increase at every fall.  at present i would like to focus here only.

MARKET IS GOING TO REMAIN HERE  & SO WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES. SO KEEP COOL & CALM TO TAKE BETTER DECISION.

1ST IT WAS RAINING NON STOP ALL OVER. NOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS FLOODING.

WE CAN NOT GO AG IT.   IT IS BETTER TO BE VERY DEFENSIVE & PROTECT OUR BELONGINGS RATHER THAN LOOKING FOR SHORT TERM GAINS.


kukku

On 19/03/2008, Rahul Agarwal <rahulag123@gmail.com> wrote:

i wont love that level, bcoz i will be in loss then

but yes if it comes then i will put in more funds

 

On 3/19/08, Asad <asadstocks@gmail.com> wrote:

I think we(ISG) will love that level . :-)

ZeeNut wrote:
> Nice cheery news to start the day :-) :-) :-)
>
> Much obliged for the member's efforts to kep ISG a happy
> place :-) :-) :-)
>
> - ZeeNut
>
>
> On Mar 18, 1:03 pm, Maverick <rajivha...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>   Morgan Stanley-A Bear Market Will Take BSE To 11022
>>
>>   The average decline in the narrow index is around 50% from peak to trough.
>>
>>   Based on our residual income model, a bear market could take the BSE Sensex to 11022, slightly less than a 50% decline from the top
>>
>>   * The PE ratio tends to more than halve. The starting PE has been quite similar at just over 30x. We were at that multiple in January
>>   2008 when the current correction began.
>>
>>   * The broader market underperforms the narrow market.
>>
>>   * Bear market declines last for a shorter period than the average bull market rise.
>>
>>   * However, bear markets are accompanied by a prolonged phase of sideway movements that make them longer than bull markets.
>>
>>   * Bear market rallies tend to be powerful.
>>
>>   * No sector trends are visible. Each bear market has its own favorite sector.
>>
>>   * The return from the low can be very strong.
>>
>>   * It takes a long time to get back to the previous bull market peak.
>>
>>   How to Cope With a Bear Market
>>   Sources: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
>>
>>   * Bear market characteristics - unpredictable and painful: It may be premature to pronounce the ongoing correction as the start of a bear market even as technical metrics are suggesting that we may already be in one.
>>
>>   Insights from the three big bear markets of the past 15 years should be useful tools for investors if they have to tackle another bear market in the coming months. There are three key insights we have picked up:
>>
>>   1) The market's decline phase is usually shorter than the bull market's rise but post the fall, bear markets witness a protracted period of sideways movement that can be quite painful.
>>
>>   2) There are no predictable patterns in sector performance (i.e., the sectoral winners differ in each bear market just the way each bull market is built around distinct sectoral themes).
>>
>>   3) Bear market rallies tend to be quite powerful, but are meant to be sold and not bought.
>>
>>   * If we get a bear market, a 50% decline from the top is in the offing:
>>
>>   Indeed, if we slip into a bear market, it could be different from the previous bear markets in at least one way: We are unlikely to get the extended sideways movement in share prices after the bear market bottom is established.
>>
>>   This is because fundamentally India is very different now than what it has been over the past 15 years.
>>
>>   This also means that the time scale for any prospective bear market may be compressed compared to the past. However, this does not mean that the decline will be smaller. Investors should still be prepared for close to a 50% haircut from the top.
>>
>>   The factors that could cause a bear market include a combination of bad global financial markets and policy errors at home that lead to a greaterthan-
>>   expected contraction in domestic growth rate.
>>
>>   We had assigned a 20% probability to a bear market at the start of the year, and we continue with that forecast.
>>
>>   Based on our residual income model, a bear market could take the BSE Sensex to 11022, slightly less than a 50% decline from the top.
>>
>>   * How to position the portfolio: From a portfolio perspective, picking the winning sector in the event we slip into a bear market seems easier than usual.
>>
>>   After all, the valuation excesses and earnings risk seem concentrated in Financials, Industrials, Materials, Telecoms and Utilities.
>>
>>   On a relative basis, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary have better valuation support. In our view, it is quite likely that Consumer Staples is the star sector in the event of a bear market with benign valuations, lack of institutional ownership, and low earnings risk as key drivers.
>>
>> Safe Harbor Statement:
>>
>> Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
>>
>>   Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
>>
>> ---------------------------------
>> Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile.  Try it now.
>>
>
> >
>
>

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